The Economy, Stupid — Daily Economic Data

Today's Market Summary

U.S. equities are trading higher: the S&P 500 +0.51% at 7,743, the Nasdaq +0.48% at 27,069, the Dow +0.93% at 51,829. The VIX sits at 14.9 (-5.1% today), inside its normal range.

The 10-year Treasury yield is climbing at 5.18% — the number behind mortgage rates and Washington's interest bill. The dollar index is at 101.0 (-0.3%). Elsewhere: gold up 0.5% at $4,321/oz; WTI crude down 2.3% at $92.41/bbl; Bitcoin at $84,002 (-0.0%).

Among big names, PYPL leads gainers at +4.64%, while INTC lags at -3.45%. Rate moves and energy prices feed straight into the political fight over inflation — match this against the headlines above.

The Dashboard

S&P 500 7,743.41 +0.51%

Nasdaq 27,068.72 +0.48%

Dow 51,828.62 +0.93%

VIX 14.87 -5.11%

10Y Yield 5.18% +0.43%

Dollar Index 100.97 -0.32%

Bitcoin 84,001.88 -0.04%

Gold 4,321.2 +0.54%

Oil WTI 92.41 -2.33%

Movers

Top Gainers

PYPL +4.64%

SMCI +4.22%

MSFT +3.66%

CAT +2.03%

AAPL +1.53%

Top Losers

INTC -3.45%

META -3.33%

COIN -2.06%

CRM -1.76%

ORCL -1.75%

Economic & Market Headlines

China’s Xi Snubs a Troubled U.N. for Trump, Overshadowing Its Big Week — NYT Politics

Anthropic’s Blacklisting by the Pentagon Was Legal, Federal Judges Rule — NYT Politics

Crypto weighs revenge against Democrats — and the risks that come with it — Politico

Without federal action, candidates for governor see an opening on AI — Politico

OpenAI agent made unauthorized attempts to access federal agencies' websites — The Hill

To make energy affordable again, end green mandates before the midterms — The Hill

US, China agree to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods, set up channel for AI incidents — The Hill

US, China strike deal to lower tariffs on $30B in goods after Trump-Xi Washington summit — Fox News Politics

The Repository — Go Straight to the Data

The Federal Reserve

FOMC Calendar, Statements & Minutes Every rate decision, on the record CME FedWatch Tool What markets bet the Fed does next The Beige Book The Fed's own read on the economy, 8x a year Fed Balance Sheet (H.4.1) QE/QT, week by week

Inflation & Prices

CPI — Bureau of Labor Statistics The headline inflation number PCE Price Index — BEA The inflation number the Fed actually targets Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Live estimate before the official print EIA Gas Prices Weekly pump prices — the inflation everyone sees

Jobs & Growth

Jobs Report — Employment Situation First Friday of every month Weekly Jobless Claims — DOL The fastest read on the labor market GDP — BEA The official growth number Atlanta Fed GDPNow Real-time GDP estimate, updated between releases

Debt, Deficits & Geopolitics

National Debt to the Penny — Treasury The number both parties grew Daily Treasury Yield Curve Recession signal watchers start here CBO Budget & Economic Outlook Nonpartisan scorekeeper of fiscal policy IMF World Economic Outlook The global picture — growth, trade, risk

Deep Data

FRED — St. Louis Fed 800,000+ chartable economic series, free Retail Sales — Census Bureau The consumer, measured monthly Trading Economics — U.S. Indicators Every indicator on one page

Market News

CNBC Economy Now feeding our headlines above Reuters U.S. Markets Fast, wire-service coverage MarketWatch Economy & Politics Where the data meets the politics